The jobs market in 2025

Where have all the jobs gone?

I have always assumed that (historically) there are around 1million job vacancies available at any one time, both those advertised and those not, as well as those where the employer will take someone on who will add to their business, but it was not a formal vacancy.

This is not the full picture, however. In my forty odd years in the employment and career business I have been through 5 or 6 ‘sticky’ periods (recessions) during which doom and gloom was widespread. Even during these periods though there was (and is) always one or two sectors booming and hiring.

The fastest growing in 2025? Human health and social work. The fastest decreasing? Wholesale and retail as well as repair of motor vehicles.

Other metrics include the number of apprenticeship vacancies, which have been falling for the last two years and the number of graduate jobs, which are also under pressure, with a fall of 8%. However, school and college leaver recruitment has increased by 8%.

Competition for jobs seems to be at an all-time high. Research on graduate recruitment shows that in 2003 there were an average of 38 applicants per vacancy; this year it is 140 and for roles in retail, FMCG and tourism it is 290!

Conclusion: the jobs market is challenging, but we knew that anyway!

What is affecting the jobs market?

Most companies have a churn of around 5-10% in their workforce (retirement, dismissal, promotions and moving out) in a normal year, so you might assume that most companies have vacancies all the time.

However, several factors will skew this.

1.      People are retiring later, so not moving out and allowing firms to add workers (particularly school leavers and graduates joining the workforce) to their funnel

2.      The cost of living means that, unless you move for more money, you will stick where you are, for security reasons

3.      On the other side, the cost of living may mean that with increased employment and business costs, your job may be at more risk

4.      Companies are waiting to see what the next budget holds before committing to recruiting

5.      In tough times companies delay, or scrap, replacing workers who leave if the existing workforce can take up the slack

6.      AI: the big one – is it eroding jobs faster that it is creating them?

Lessons for Job Searching

To keep up with the market and advances in technology, you need to develop your soft-skills, which AI can’t yet replace, and highlight your transferable skills so that you can move sectors to those on the rise.

You also need to develop a robust job search strategy and toolkit, becoming more sophisticated, targeted and thorough in your search for your next career.

Reference Points

ONS; Indeed with Censuswide; Ranstad; The Edge Foundation; HEPI (2025), AI and the Future of Universities